Menemen FK 3–0 1461 Trabzon FK: Result & Stats

Menemen FK

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

1461 Trabzon FK

12/2/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundMenemen Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Menemen FK80%

×Draw14%

1461 Trabzon FK6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Menemen FKExpected goals in this match1461 Trabzon FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

0.54

Menemen FK

2.48

1461 Trabzon FK

0.54

Menemen FK creates 359% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.83

creates per match

0.25

0.83

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Menemen FK

1.83

1461 Trabzon FK

0.25

allows per match

Menemen FK

0.83

1461 Trabzon FK

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Menemen FK+0.00on par

1461 Trabzon FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menemen FK ↓

1461 Trabzon FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Menemen FK or draw

94%

Menemen FK or 1461 Trabzon FK

86%

Draw or 1461 Trabzon FK

20%

Winning margin

Menemen FK wins by 2+

57%

1461 Trabzon FK wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Menemen FK 1+ goals

92%

Menemen FK 2+ goals

70%

Menemen FK 3+ goals

44%

1461 Trabzon FK 1+ goals

42%

1461 Trabzon FK 2+ goals

10%

1461 Trabzon FK 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Menemen FK (draw refunded)

93%

1461 Trabzon FK (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menemen FK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

1461 Trabzon FK away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menemen FK attack 1.83 + 1461 Trabzon FK defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.48

1461 Trabzon FK attack 0.25 + Menemen FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Menemen FK scores more

80%

level

14%

1461 Trabzon FK scores more

6%

Menemen FK at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Menemen FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff