1461 Trabzon FK 3–0 Menemen FK: Result & Stats

1461 Trabzon FK

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Menemen FK

10/29/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundVakfıkebir İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

1461 Trabzon FK67%

×Draw20%

Menemen FK13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1461 Trabzon FKExpected goals in this matchMenemen FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.81

1461 Trabzon FK

2.10

Menemen FK

0.81

1461 Trabzon FK creates 159% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

0.80

0.83

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

1461 Trabzon FK

2.00

Menemen FK

0.80

allows per match

1461 Trabzon FK

0.83

Menemen FK

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1461 Trabzon FK+0.00on par

Menemen FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1461 Trabzon FK ↓

Menemen FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

1461 Trabzon FK or draw

87%

1461 Trabzon FK or Menemen FK

80%

Draw or Menemen FK

33%

Winning margin

1461 Trabzon FK wins by 2+

43%

Menemen FK wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

1461 Trabzon FK 1+ goals

88%

1461 Trabzon FK 2+ goals

62%

1461 Trabzon FK 3+ goals

35%

Menemen FK 1+ goals

56%

Menemen FK 2+ goals

19%

Menemen FK 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

1461 Trabzon FK (draw refunded)

83%

Menemen FK (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1461 Trabzon FK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Menemen FK away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1461 Trabzon FK attack 2.00 + Menemen FK defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Menemen FK attack 0.80 + 1461 Trabzon FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

1461 Trabzon FK scores more

67%

level

20%

Menemen FK scores more

13%

1461 Trabzon FK at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "1461 Trabzon FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff