Mendrisio 1–2 Grasshopper II: Result & Stats

Mendrisio

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Grasshopper II

5/11/2024

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Campo comunale Mendrisio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mendrisio45%

×Draw23%

Grasshopper II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MendrisioExpected goals in this matchGrasshopper II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.42

Mendrisio

1.73

Grasshopper II

1.42

Mendrisio creates 22% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.62

creates per match

1.57

1.27

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Mendrisio

1.62

Grasshopper II

1.57

allows per match

Mendrisio

1.27

Grasshopper II

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mendrisio+0.00on par

Grasshopper II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mendrisio ↓

Grasshopper II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Mendrisio or draw

68%

Mendrisio or Grasshopper II

77%

Draw or Grasshopper II

55%

Winning margin

Mendrisio wins by 2+

24%

Grasshopper II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mendrisio 1+ goals

82%

Mendrisio 2+ goals

52%

Mendrisio 3+ goals

25%

Grasshopper II 1+ goals

76%

Grasshopper II 2+ goals

41%

Grasshopper II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mendrisio (draw refunded)

59%

Grasshopper II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mendrisio at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Grasshopper II away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mendrisio attack 1.62 + Grasshopper II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Grasshopper II attack 1.57 + Mendrisio defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mendrisio scores more

45%

level

23%

Grasshopper II scores more

32%

Mendrisio at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mendrisio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff