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Grasshopper II vs Mendrisio — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Grasshopper II
Grasshopper II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mendrisio
Mendrisio
11/4/20231. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13GC/Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Grasshopper II52%
×Draw24%
Mendrisio24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grasshopper II
1.67
Mendrisio
1.04

Grasshopper II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Grasshopper II
1.70
Mendrisio
0.98

allows per match

Grasshopper II
1.10
Mendrisio
1.64

finishing

Grasshopper II+0.00on par
Mendrisio+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshopper II ↓

Mendrisio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Grasshopper II or draw
76%
Grasshopper II or Mendrisio
76%
Draw or Mendrisio
48%

Winning margin

Grasshopper II wins by 2+
28%
Mendrisio wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Grasshopper II 1+ goals
81%
Grasshopper II 2+ goals
50%
Grasshopper II 3+ goals
23%
Mendrisio 1+ goals
65%
Mendrisio 2+ goals
28%
Mendrisio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Grasshopper II (draw refunded)
69%
Mendrisio (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshopper II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Mendrisio away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshopper II attack 1.70 + Mendrisio defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Mendrisio attack 0.98 + Grasshopper II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grasshopper II scores more
52%
level
24%
Mendrisio scores more
24%

Grasshopper II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Grasshopper II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grasshopper II vs Mendrisio

Grasshopper II beat Mendrisio 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at GC/Campus in Niederhasli.