Regar-TadAZ 3–0 Parvoz: Result & Stats

Regar-TadAZ

FT

3 – 0

Parvoz

6/21/2015

Vysshaya Liga · Round 8TALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Regar-TadAZ64%

×Draw21%

Parvoz15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Regar-TadAZExpected goals in this matchParvoz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.83

Regar-TadAZ

1.99

Parvoz

0.83

Regar-TadAZ creates 140% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 24 away

1.48

creates per match

0.58

1.09

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ

1.48

Parvoz

0.58

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ

1.09

Parvoz

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Parvoz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

Parvoz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw

85%

Regar-TadAZ or Parvoz

79%

Draw or Parvoz

36%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+

39%

Parvoz wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals

86%

Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals

59%

Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals

32%

Parvoz 1+ goals

56%

Parvoz 2+ goals

20%

Parvoz 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)

81%

Parvoz (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

Parvoz away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.48 + Parvoz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.99

Parvoz attack 0.58 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more

64%

level

21%

Parvoz scores more

15%

Regar-TadAZ at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff