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Regar-TadAZ vs Parvoz — Vysshaya Liga 2012

Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
FT
4 – 1
Parvoz
Parvoz
4/15/2012Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 2TALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Regar-TadAZ62%
×Draw22%
Parvoz16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Regar-TadAZ
1.84
Parvoz
0.79

Regar-TadAZ creates 133% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 23 away

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.52
Parvoz
0.48

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.09
Parvoz
2.17

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par
Parvoz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

Parvoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw
84%
Regar-TadAZ or Parvoz
78%
Draw or Parvoz
38%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
37%
Parvoz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
84%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
55%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
28%
Parvoz 1+ goals
55%
Parvoz 2+ goals
19%
Parvoz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
80%
Parvoz (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

Parvoz away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.52 + Parvoz defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.84

Parvoz attack 0.48 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more
62%
level
22%
Parvoz scores more
16%

Regar-TadAZ at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Regar-TadAZ 4–1 Parvoz

Regar-TadAZ beat Parvoz 4-1 in Vysshaya Liga on April 15, 2012.

The match was played at TALCO Arena in Tursunzoda.