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Memphis 901 vs Las Vegas Lights — USL Championship 2026

Memphis 901
Memphis 901
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights
4/16/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 7AutoZone Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Memphis 90154%
×Draw22%
Las Vegas Lights23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memphis 901
1.92
Las Vegas Lights
1.18

Memphis 901 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 133 away

creates per match

Memphis 901
1.73
Las Vegas Lights
1.09

allows per match

Memphis 901
1.27
Las Vegas Lights
2.11

finishing

Memphis 901+0.00on par
Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memphis 901 ↓

Las Vegas Lights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Memphis 901 or draw
77%
Memphis 901 or Las Vegas Lights
78%
Draw or Las Vegas Lights
46%

Winning margin

Memphis 901 wins by 2+
31%
Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Memphis 901 1+ goals
85%
Memphis 901 2+ goals
57%
Memphis 901 3+ goals
30%
Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals
69%
Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals
33%
Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Memphis 901 (draw refunded)
70%
Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memphis 901 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

Las Vegas Lights away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.11 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memphis 901 attack 1.73 + Las Vegas Lights defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.92

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.09 + Memphis 901 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Memphis 901 scores more
54%
level
22%
Las Vegas Lights scores more
23%

Memphis 901 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Memphis 901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Memphis 901 vs Las Vegas Lights

Memphis 901 and Las Vegas Lights drew 2-2 in USL Championship on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at AutoZone Park in Memphis.