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Las Vegas Lights vs Memphis 901 — USL Championship 2026

Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Memphis 901
Memphis 901
6/23/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 19Cashman Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Las Vegas Lights38%
×Draw25%
Memphis 90137%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Vegas Lights
1.46
Memphis 901
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 93 away

creates per match

Las Vegas Lights
1.42
Memphis 901
1.37

allows per match

Las Vegas Lights
1.51
Memphis 901
1.49

finishing

Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par
Memphis 901+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Vegas Lights ↓

Memphis 901 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Las Vegas Lights or draw
63%
Las Vegas Lights or Memphis 901
75%
Draw or Memphis 901
62%

Winning margin

Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+
18%
Memphis 901 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals
77%
Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals
43%
Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals
18%
Memphis 901 1+ goals
76%
Memphis 901 2+ goals
42%
Memphis 901 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)
51%
Memphis 901 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Vegas Lights at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.51 · 131 matches

Memphis 901 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.49 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.42 + Memphis 901 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Memphis 901 attack 1.37 + Las Vegas Lights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Las Vegas Lights scores more
38%
level
25%
Memphis 901 scores more
37%

Las Vegas Lights at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Las Vegas Lights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Memphis 901

Las Vegas Lights and Memphis 901 drew 1-1 in USL Championship on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Cashman Field in Las Vegas, Nevada.