Memphis 901 2–1 Indy Eleven: Result & Stats

Memphis 901

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Indy Eleven

5/15/2022

USL Championship · Round 14AutoZone Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Memphis 90148%

×Draw24%

Indy Eleven28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Memphis 901Expected goals in this matchIndy Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.20

Memphis 901

1.66

Indy Eleven

1.20

Memphis 901 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 131 away

1.73

creates per match

1.13

1.27

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Memphis 901

1.73

Indy Eleven

1.13

allows per match

Memphis 901

1.27

Indy Eleven

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Memphis 901+0.00on par

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memphis 901 ↓

Indy Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Memphis 901 or draw

72%

Memphis 901 or Indy Eleven

76%

Draw or Indy Eleven

52%

Winning margin

Memphis 901 wins by 2+

25%

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Memphis 901 1+ goals

81%

Memphis 901 2+ goals

49%

Memphis 901 3+ goals

23%

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

70%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

34%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Memphis 901 (draw refunded)

63%

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memphis 901 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.58 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memphis 901 attack 1.73 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.66

Indy Eleven attack 1.13 + Memphis 901 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Memphis 901 scores more

48%

level

24%

Indy Eleven scores more

28%

Memphis 901 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Memphis 901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff