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Indy Eleven vs Memphis 901 — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Memphis 901
Memphis 901
8/5/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 27Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Indy Eleven43%
×Draw25%
Memphis 90132%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.49
Memphis 901
1.25

Indy Eleven creates 19% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 93 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Memphis 901
1.37

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Memphis 901
1.49

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Memphis 901+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Memphis 901 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
68%
Indy Eleven or Memphis 901
75%
Draw or Memphis 901
57%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
21%
Memphis 901 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
77%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
44%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
19%
Memphis 901 1+ goals
71%
Memphis 901 2+ goals
36%
Memphis 901 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
57%
Memphis 901 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 135 matches

Memphis 901 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.49 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Memphis 901 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.49

Memphis 901 attack 1.37 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
43%
level
25%
Memphis 901 scores more
32%

Indy Eleven at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 1–2 Memphis 901

Memphis 901 beat Indy Eleven 2-1 in USL Championship on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Michael A. Carroll Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.