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Memmingen vs Schwaben Augsburg — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Memmingen
Memmingen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Schwaben Augsburg
Schwaben Augsburg
L. Ramser 75'
4/28/2026Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 26Memminger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Memmingen32%
×Draw25%
Schwaben Augsburg43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memmingen
1.29
Schwaben Augsburg
1.52

Schwaben Augsburg creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 25 away

creates per match

Memmingen
1.03
Schwaben Augsburg
1.20

allows per match

Memmingen
1.83
Schwaben Augsburg
1.56

finishing

Memmingen+0.00on par
Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memmingen ↓

Schwaben Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Memmingen or draw
57%
Memmingen or Schwaben Augsburg
75%
Draw or Schwaben Augsburg
68%

Winning margin

Memmingen wins by 2+
14%
Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Memmingen 1+ goals
72%
Memmingen 2+ goals
37%
Memmingen 3+ goals
14%
Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals
78%
Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals
45%
Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Memmingen (draw refunded)
43%
Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memmingen at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

Schwaben Augsburg away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memmingen attack 1.03 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.20 + Memmingen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Memmingen scores more
32%
level
25%
Schwaben Augsburg scores more
43%

Schwaben Augsburg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Schwaben Augsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
L. Ramser
Memmingen
Schwaben
M. Günes
Manager: M. Günes
M. Ostrzolek
Manager: M. Ostrzolek

Match Recap: Memmingen vs Schwaben Augsburg

Schwaben Augsburg beat Memmingen 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 28, 2026.

Goals: L. Ramser (75').

The match was played at Memminger Arena in Memmingen.