Memmingen 3–0 Schwaben Augsburg: Result & Stats

Memmingen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Schwaben Augsburg

N. Trkulja 70'

P. Maier 61', 49'

11/19/2022

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 20Memminger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Memmingen39%

×Draw26%

Schwaben Augsburg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MemmingenExpected goals in this matchSchwaben Augsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.25

Memmingen

1.35

Schwaben Augsburg

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

1.39

creates per match

1.65

0.85

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Memmingen

1.39

Schwaben Augsburg

1.65

allows per match

Memmingen

0.85

Schwaben Augsburg

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Memmingen+0.00on par

Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memmingen ↓

Schwaben Augsburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Memmingen or draw

66%

Memmingen or Schwaben Augsburg

74%

Draw or Schwaben Augsburg

61%

Winning margin

Memmingen wins by 2+

18%

Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Memmingen 1+ goals

74%

Memmingen 2+ goals

39%

Memmingen 3+ goals

15%

Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals

71%

Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals

36%

Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Memmingen (draw refunded)

53%

Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memmingen at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Schwaben Augsburg away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memmingen attack 1.39 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.65 + Memmingen defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Memmingen scores more

39%

level

26%

Schwaben Augsburg scores more

34%

Memmingen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Memmingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

P. Maier

61'

P. Maier

70'

N. Trkulja

79'

M. Heiss

79'

M. Heiss

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff