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Memmingen vs Augsburg II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Memmingen
Memmingen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Augsburg II
Augsburg II
8/29/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 7Memminger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Memmingen32%
×Draw24%
Augsburg II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memmingen
1.36
Augsburg II
1.65

Augsburg II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 87 away

creates per match

Memmingen
1.03
Augsburg II
1.47

allows per match

Memmingen
1.83
Augsburg II
1.70

finishing

Memmingen+0.00on par
Augsburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memmingen ↓

Augsburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Memmingen or draw
56%
Memmingen or Augsburg II
76%
Draw or Augsburg II
68%

Winning margin

Memmingen wins by 2+
14%
Augsburg II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Memmingen 1+ goals
74%
Memmingen 2+ goals
39%
Memmingen 3+ goals
16%
Augsburg II 1+ goals
81%
Augsburg II 2+ goals
49%
Augsburg II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Memmingen (draw refunded)
42%
Augsburg II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memmingen at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

Augsburg II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.70 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memmingen attack 1.03 + Augsburg II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.36

Augsburg II attack 1.47 + Memmingen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Memmingen scores more
32%
level
24%
Augsburg II scores more
44%

Augsburg II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Augsburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Memmingen 0–2 Augsburg II

Augsburg II beat Memmingen 2-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 29, 2023.

The match was played at Memminger Arena in Memmingen.