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Augsburg II vs Memmingen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Augsburg II
Augsburg II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Memmingen
Memmingen
3/8/2024Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 24Rosenaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Augsburg II49%
×Draw23%
Memmingen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Augsburg II
1.82
Memmingen
1.33

Augsburg II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 66 away

creates per match

Augsburg II
1.89
Memmingen
1.24

allows per match

Augsburg II
1.42
Memmingen
1.76

finishing

Augsburg II+0.00on par
Memmingen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg II ↓

Memmingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Augsburg II or draw
72%
Augsburg II or Memmingen
77%
Draw or Memmingen
51%

Winning margin

Augsburg II wins by 2+
27%
Memmingen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Augsburg II 1+ goals
84%
Augsburg II 2+ goals
54%
Augsburg II 3+ goals
27%
Memmingen 1+ goals
74%
Memmingen 2+ goals
38%
Memmingen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Augsburg II (draw refunded)
63%
Memmingen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.42 · 88 matches

Memmingen away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg II attack 1.89 + Memmingen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.82

Memmingen attack 1.24 + Augsburg II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Augsburg II scores more
49%
level
23%
Memmingen scores more
28%

Augsburg II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Augsburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Augsburg II vs Memmingen

Augsburg II and Memmingen drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Rosenaustadion in Augsburg.