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Memmingen vs 1860 Rosenheim — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Memmingen
Memmingen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
1860 Rosenheim
1860 Rosenheim
N. Muller 19'
B. Tanev 25'
5/20/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 33Memminger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Memmingen57%
×Draw23%
1860 Rosenheim20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memmingen
1.81
1860 Rosenheim
0.96

Memmingen creates 89% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

Memmingen
1.39
1860 Rosenheim
1.06

allows per match

Memmingen
0.85
1860 Rosenheim
2.24

finishing

Memmingen+0.00on par
1860 Rosenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memmingen ↓

1860 Rosenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Memmingen or draw
80%
Memmingen or 1860 Rosenheim
77%
Draw or 1860 Rosenheim
43%

Winning margin

Memmingen wins by 2+
33%
1860 Rosenheim wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Memmingen 1+ goals
84%
Memmingen 2+ goals
54%
Memmingen 3+ goals
27%
1860 Rosenheim 1+ goals
62%
1860 Rosenheim 2+ goals
25%
1860 Rosenheim 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Memmingen (draw refunded)
74%
1860 Rosenheim (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memmingen at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

1860 Rosenheim away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memmingen attack 1.39 + 1860 Rosenheim defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.81

1860 Rosenheim attack 1.06 + Memmingen defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Memmingen scores more
57%
level
23%
1860 Rosenheim scores more
20%

Memmingen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Memmingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
N. Muller
25'
B. Tanev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Memmingen 1–1 1860 Rosenheim

Memmingen and 1860 Rosenheim drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on May 20, 2023.

Goals: N. Muller (19'), B. Tanev (25').

The match was played at Memminger Arena in Memmingen.