Memmingen 4–0 1860 Rosenheim: Result & Stats

Memmingen

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

1860 Rosenheim

J. Gräser 68', 53', 26'

P. Maier 54'

8/20/2021

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 9Memminger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Memmingen52%

×Draw21%

1860 Rosenheim27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MemmingenExpected goals in this match1860 Rosenheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.48

Memmingen

2.10

1860 Rosenheim

1.48

Memmingen creates 42% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 32 away

1.03

creates per match

1.13

1.83

allows per match

3.16

creates per match

Memmingen

1.03

1860 Rosenheim

1.13

allows per match

Memmingen

1.83

1860 Rosenheim

3.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Memmingen+0.00on par

1860 Rosenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memmingen ↓

1860 Rosenheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Memmingen or draw

73%

Memmingen or 1860 Rosenheim

79%

Draw or 1860 Rosenheim

48%

Winning margin

Memmingen wins by 2+

30%

1860 Rosenheim wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Memmingen 1+ goals

88%

Memmingen 2+ goals

62%

Memmingen 3+ goals

35%

1860 Rosenheim 1+ goals

77%

1860 Rosenheim 2+ goals

43%

1860 Rosenheim 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Memmingen (draw refunded)

66%

1860 Rosenheim (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memmingen at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

1860 Rosenheim away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memmingen attack 1.03 + 1860 Rosenheim defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.10

1860 Rosenheim attack 1.13 + Memmingen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Memmingen scores more

52%

level

21%

1860 Rosenheim scores more

27%

Memmingen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Memmingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

J. Gräser

46'

N. Schiedermeier← S. Zander

53'

J. Gräser

54'

P. Maier

57'

H. Akcakaya← M. Dausch

68'

J. Gräser

80'

C. Fenninger← S. Marinkovic

80'

A. Majanovic← L. Demolli

83'

D. Mihajlovic← P. Maier

83'

A. Kryeziu← N. Fundel

87'

T. Hirschle← O. Leyla

90'

M. Moser← G. Kilic

Memmingen

1860

23

5

16

21

17

6

44

8

▼

Zander

11

Majdancev

9

▼

Marinkovi

36

▼

1

4

23

14

3

⚽3

Gräser

18

Scholz

5

▼

Dausch

19

▼

Kilic

6

▼

Fundel

11

▼

Leyla

17

⚽

▼

Maier

Manager: E. Kahric

57'▲H. Akcakaya←▼M. Dausch

83'▲D. Mihajlovic←▼P. Maier

83'▲A. Kryeziu←▼N. Fundel

87'▲T. Hirschle←▼O. Leyla

90'▲M. Moser←▼G. Kilic

Memmingen substitutes

7Akcakaya8Mihajlovic16Kryeziu20Hirschle15Moser9Wilke22Beinhofer

Manager: F. Heller

46'▲N. Schiedermeier←▼S. Zander

80'▲C. Fenninger←▼S. Marinkovic

80'▲A. Majanovic←▼L. Demolli

1860 Rosenheim substitutes

27Schiedermeier14Fenninger7Majanovic31Jesse4Kuchler1Schönberger34Salihu