Melilla 1–1 Internacional de Madrid: Result & Stats

Melilla

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

Ruano 87'

Aythami Perera 50'

1/26/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Melilla47%

×Draw31%

Internacional de Madrid23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MelillaExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.73

Melilla

1.18

Internacional de Madrid

0.73

Melilla creates 62% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

0.93

creates per match

0.76

0.71

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Melilla

0.93

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Melilla

0.71

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Melilla or draw

77%

Melilla or Internacional de Madrid

69%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

53%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+

20%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals

69%

Melilla 2+ goals

33%

Melilla 3+ goals

12%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

52%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

17%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)

67%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 0.93 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Melilla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Melilla scores more

47%

level

31%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

23%

Melilla at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

Aythami Perera

58'

J. Moyano

58'

J. Moyano

58'

Alvar Herrero← Rubén Ramos

61'

Carri← M. Diana

71'

Aitor Núñez← Junior

72'

Ruano← Deco

79'

Richi Segura← Jordi Ortega

84'

N. Arkine← Aythami Perera

87'

Ruano

Melilla

Internacional

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Manolo Herrero

61'▲Carri←▼M. Diana

72'▲Ruano←▼Deco

79'▲Richi Segura←▼Jordi Ortega

Melilla substitutes

CarriRuanoSeguraRamosLeonardoMahananMiguel

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

58'▲Alvar Herrero←▼Rubén Ramos

71'▲Aitor Núñez←▼Junior

84'▲N. Arkine←▼Aythami Perera

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

HerreroNúñezArkineGuzmánValeroGómez