Internacional de Madrid 5–1 Melilla: Result & Stats

Internacional de Madrid

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Melilla

Rufo 86', 77', 19'

Rubén Ramos 67'

Gonzalo Llerena 32'

Mawi 80'

9/8/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Internacional de Madrid53%

×Draw23%

Melilla24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchMelilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.19

Internacional de Madrid

1.88

Melilla

1.19

Internacional de Madrid creates 58% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 14 away

1.82

creates per match

1.14

1.24

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Melilla

1.14

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Melilla

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Melilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

76%

Internacional de Madrid or Melilla

77%

Draw or Melilla

47%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

30%

Melilla wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

85%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

56%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

29%

Melilla 1+ goals

70%

Melilla 2+ goals

33%

Melilla 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

69%

Melilla (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Melilla defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.88

Melilla attack 1.14 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

53%

level

23%

Melilla scores more

24%

Internacional de Madrid at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Rufo

32'

Gonzalo Llerena

62'

Carlos Fernández← David Ramos

67'

72'

76'

77'

80'

83'

Adrián Mance← N. Arkine

86'

Rufo

Internacional

Melilla

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽3

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

72'▲Diego Simón←▼Arthur

76'▲Chevi←▼Alvar Herrero

83'▲Adrián Mance←▼N. Arkine

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

SimónCheviManceNúñezPereraMarcãoValero

Manager: Víctor Cea

62'▲Carlos Fernández←▼David Ramos

Melilla substitutes

FernándezDecoHichamCarriónLeonardoMahananMena

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 5–1 Melilla

Internacional de Madrid beat Melilla 5-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 8, 2019.

Goals: Rufo (19', 77', 86'), Gonzalo Llerena (32'), Rubén Ramos (67'), Mawi (80').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte in Boadilla del Monte.

Internacional de Madrid vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 5–1 Melilla