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Melilla vs Ibiza — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Melilla
Melilla
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ibiza
Ibiza
11/19/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Melilla34%
×Draw31%
Ibiza35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
0.99
Ibiza
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Melilla
1.00
Ibiza
1.02

allows per match

Melilla
1.00
Ibiza
0.98

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Ibiza+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Ibiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
65%
Melilla or Ibiza
69%
Draw or Ibiza
66%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
13%
Ibiza wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
63%
Melilla 2+ goals
26%
Melilla 3+ goals
8%
Ibiza 1+ goals
64%
Ibiza 2+ goals
27%
Ibiza 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
49%
Ibiza (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Ibiza away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 1.00 + Ibiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Ibiza attack 1.02 + Melilla defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Melilla scores more
34%
level
31%
Ibiza scores more
35%

Ibiza at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melilla vs Ibiza

Ibiza beat Melilla 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Álvarez Claro in Melilla.