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Ibiza vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ibiza
Ibiza
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Melilla
Melilla
12/1/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ibiza60%
×Draw23%
Melilla17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza
1.82
Melilla
0.85

Ibiza creates 114% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ibiza
1.71
Melilla
1.14

allows per match

Ibiza
0.57
Melilla
1.93

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw
83%
Ibiza or Melilla
77%
Draw or Melilla
40%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+
35%
Melilla wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals
84%
Ibiza 2+ goals
54%
Ibiza 3+ goals
27%
Melilla 1+ goals
57%
Melilla 2+ goals
21%
Melilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)
78%
Melilla (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.71 + Melilla defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.82

Melilla attack 1.14 + Ibiza defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ibiza scores more
60%
level
23%
Melilla scores more
17%

Ibiza at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Ibiza 3–1 Melilla

Ibiza beat Melilla 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Can Misses in Ibiza.