Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Melilla vs Getafe II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Melilla
Melilla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Getafe II
Getafe II
8/25/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Melilla47%
×Draw29%
Getafe II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
1.25
Getafe II
0.78

Melilla creates 60% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Melilla
0.93
Getafe II
0.86

allows per match

Melilla
0.71
Getafe II
1.57

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Getafe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
77%
Melilla or Getafe II
71%
Draw or Getafe II
53%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
22%
Getafe II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
71%
Melilla 2+ goals
36%
Melilla 3+ goals
13%
Getafe II 1+ goals
54%
Getafe II 2+ goals
18%
Getafe II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
67%
Getafe II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 0.93 + Getafe II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Getafe II attack 0.86 + Melilla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Melilla scores more
47%
level
29%
Getafe II scores more
23%

Melilla at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Melilla 1–0 Getafe II

Melilla beat Getafe II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Álvarez Claro in Melilla.