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Getafe II vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Melilla
Melilla
4/4/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 1Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Getafe II30%
×Draw30%
Melilla40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
0.93
Melilla
1.11

Melilla creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Getafe II
0.77
Melilla
1.00

allows per match

Getafe II
1.23
Melilla
1.08

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
60%
Getafe II or Melilla
70%
Draw or Melilla
70%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
11%
Melilla wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
61%
Getafe II 2+ goals
24%
Getafe II 3+ goals
7%
Melilla 1+ goals
67%
Melilla 2+ goals
30%
Melilla 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
43%
Melilla (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 0.77 + Melilla defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.93

Melilla attack 1.00 + Getafe II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Getafe II scores more
30%
level
30%
Melilla scores more
40%

Melilla at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Getafe II 2–2 Melilla

Getafe II and Melilla drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1 in Getafe.