Melilla CD 0–2 Málaga II: Result & Stats

Melilla CD

0 – 2

Málaga II

3/20/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 17Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Melilla CD27%

×Draw28%

Málaga II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melilla CDExpected goals in this matchMálaga II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.29

Melilla CD

0.95

Málaga II

1.29

Málaga II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 92 away

0.79

creates per match

1.35

1.24

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Melilla CD

0.79

Málaga II

1.35

allows per match

Melilla CD

1.24

Málaga II

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melilla CD+0.00on par

Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla CD ↓

Málaga II →

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Melilla CD or draw

56%

Melilla CD or Málaga II

72%

Draw or Málaga II

73%

Winning margin

Melilla CD wins by 2+

10%

Málaga II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Melilla CD 1+ goals

61%

Melilla CD 2+ goals

25%

Melilla CD 3+ goals

Málaga II 1+ goals

72%

Málaga II 2+ goals

37%

Málaga II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Melilla CD (draw refunded)

38%

Málaga II (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Melilla CD at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Melilla CD attack 0.79 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Melilla CD defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Melilla CD scores more

27%

level

28%

Málaga II scores more

44%

Málaga II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff