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Málaga II vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Málaga II
Málaga II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Melilla CD
Melilla CD
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 10Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Málaga II72%
×Draw17%
Melilla CD10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Málaga II
2.32
Melilla CD
0.75

Málaga II creates 209% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 28 away

creates per match

Málaga II
2.03
Melilla CD
0.82

allows per match

Málaga II
0.69
Melilla CD
2.61

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par
Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Melilla CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw
90%
Málaga II or Melilla CD
83%
Draw or Melilla CD
28%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+
49%
Melilla CD wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals
90%
Málaga II 2+ goals
67%
Málaga II 3+ goals
40%
Melilla CD 1+ goals
53%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
17%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)
87%
Melilla CD (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.32

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Málaga II scores more
72%
level
17%
Melilla CD scores more
10%

Málaga II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Málaga II 3–0 Melilla CD

Málaga II beat Melilla CD 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol in Málaga.