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Melilla CD vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Melilla CD
Melilla CD
CANC
00:00
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 35Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Melilla CD34%
×Draw28%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla CD
1.12
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 110 away

creates per match

Melilla CD
0.79
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.16

allows per match

Melilla CD
1.24
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.45

finishing

Melilla CD+0.00on par
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla CD ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Melilla CD or draw
62%
Melilla CD or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
72%
Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
66%

Winning margin

Melilla CD wins by 2+
14%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Melilla CD 1+ goals
67%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
31%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
10%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
70%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
34%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Melilla CD (draw refunded)
47%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla CD at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla CD attack 0.79 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.12

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Melilla CD defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Melilla CD scores more
34%
level
28%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
38%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melilla CD vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Match Preview

Melilla CD face Ciudad de Torredonjimeno on April 26, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Melilla CD host Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at Estadio La Espiguera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.