Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1–1 Melilla CD

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Melilla CD

Sergio García 37'

Braim 54' (pen)

11/30/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 16Estadio Matías Prats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno66%

×Draw19%

Melilla CD14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad de TorredonjimenoExpected goals in this matchMelilla CD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.91

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

2.19

Melilla CD

0.91

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno creates 141% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 28 away

1.77

creates per match

0.82

1.00

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.77

Melilla CD

0.82

allows per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.00

Melilla CD

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno ↓

Melilla CD →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw

86%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or Melilla CD

81%

Draw or Melilla CD

34%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+

43%

Melilla CD wins by 2+

Team goals

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals

89%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals

64%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals

37%

Melilla CD 1+ goals

60%

Melilla CD 2+ goals

23%

Melilla CD 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)

82%

Melilla CD (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.77 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.19

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more

66%

level

19%

Melilla CD scores more

14%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Sergio García

54'

BraimPenalty

64'

Manolo Fernández← Moha Belaid

66'

Paco Anguita← Juanra Trillo

77'

Álvaro Bueno← Fran Martos

83'

Adrián Ruiz← Miguelín

87'

Cristian García← Yosef

89'

Roberto García← Braim

Ciudad

Melilla

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Manuel Chumilla

66'▲Paco Anguita←▼Juanra Trillo

77'▲Álvaro Bueno←▼Fran Martos

83'▲Adrián Ruiz←▼Miguelín

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno substitutes

AnguitaBuenoRuiz

Manager: Nacho Aznar

64'▲Manolo Fernández←▼Moha Belaid

87'▲Cristian García←▼Yosef

89'▲Roberto García←▼Braim

Melilla CD substitutes

FernándezGarcíaGarcía

Match Recap: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Melilla CD

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno and Melilla CD drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 30, 2019.

Goals: Sergio García (37'), Braim (54' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Matías Prats in Torredonjimeno.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Melilla CD