Melbourne Victory 1–0 Kawasaki Frontale

Melbourne Victory

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kawasaki Frontale

3/13/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Melbourne Victory28%

×Draw23%

Kawasaki Frontale50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne VictoryExpected goals in this matchKawasaki Frontale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.88

Melbourne Victory

1.35

Kawasaki Frontale

1.88

Kawasaki Frontale creates 39% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

1.70

creates per match

2.35

1.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Melbourne Victory

1.70

Kawasaki Frontale

2.35

allows per match

Melbourne Victory

1.40

Kawasaki Frontale

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory or draw

50%

Melbourne Victory or Kawasaki Frontale

77%

Draw or Kawasaki Frontale

72%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

12%

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

74%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

39%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

15%

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

85%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

56%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

36%

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory attack 1.70 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.35 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Melbourne Victory scores more

28%

level

23%

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

50%

Kawasaki Frontale at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff