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Kawasaki Frontale vs Melbourne Victory — AFC Champions League 2018

Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
3/7/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Todoroki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale73%
×Draw16%
Melbourne Victory11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawasaki Frontale
2.63
Melbourne Victory
0.93

Kawasaki Frontale creates 183% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale
2.43
Melbourne Victory
0.91

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale
0.95
Melbourne Victory
2.82

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Melbourne Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw
89%
Kawasaki Frontale or Melbourne Victory
84%
Draw or Melbourne Victory
27%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
52%
Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
93%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
73%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
48%
Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
61%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
24%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
87%
Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.43 + Melbourne Victory defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.63

Melbourne Victory attack 0.91 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more
73%
level
16%
Melbourne Victory scores more
11%

Kawasaki Frontale at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Kawasaki Frontale 2–2 Melbourne Victory

Kawasaki Frontale and Melbourne Victory drew 2-2 in AFC Champions League on March 7, 2018.

The match was played at Todoroki Stadium in Kawasaki.