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Melbourne Victory II vs Melbourne City II — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
FT
3 – 0
Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
3/24/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 7Epping Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Melbourne Victory II46%
×Draw22%
Melbourne City II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Victory II
2.00
Melbourne City II
1.65

Melbourne Victory II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 39 away

creates per match

Melbourne Victory II
2.55
Melbourne City II
2.03

allows per match

Melbourne Victory II
1.27
Melbourne City II
1.46

finishing

Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par
Melbourne City II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory II ↓

Melbourne City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory II or draw
68%
Melbourne Victory II or Melbourne City II
78%
Draw or Melbourne City II
54%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
26%
Melbourne City II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
86%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
59%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
32%
Melbourne City II 1+ goals
81%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
49%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
59%
Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Melbourne City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory II attack 2.55 + Melbourne City II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.00

Melbourne City II attack 2.03 + Melbourne Victory II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Melbourne Victory II scores more
46%
level
22%
Melbourne City II scores more
32%

Melbourne Victory II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Melbourne Victory II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melbourne Victory II 3 – 0 Melbourne City II

Melbourne Victory II beat Melbourne City II 3-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Epping Stadium in Melbourne.