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Melbourne City II vs Melbourne Victory II — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
6/29/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 20Casey Fields - Pitch 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Melbourne City II41%
×Draw20%
Melbourne Victory II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City II
2.17
Melbourne Victory II
2.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 24 away

creates per match

Melbourne City II
2.42
Melbourne Victory II
2.42

allows per match

Melbourne City II
1.77
Melbourne Victory II
1.92

finishing

Melbourne City II+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City II ↓

Melbourne Victory II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Melbourne City II or draw
62%
Melbourne City II or Melbourne Victory II
80%
Draw or Melbourne Victory II
59%

Winning margin

Melbourne City II wins by 2+
23%
Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Melbourne City II 1+ goals
89%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
64%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
36%
Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
88%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
62%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
52%
Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

Melbourne Victory II away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City II attack 2.42 + Melbourne Victory II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.17

Melbourne Victory II attack 2.42 + Melbourne City II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Melbourne City II scores more
41%
level
20%
Melbourne Victory II scores more
38%

Melbourne City II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne City II vs Melbourne Victory II

Melbourne City II and Melbourne Victory II drew 3-3 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Casey Fields - Pitch 4 in Melbourne.