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Melbourne Victory II vs Dandenong Thunder — Victoria NPL 2026

Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder
D. Lazarevski 71'
P. Wall 37'
L. Kolic 35'
Y. Uchida 88'
W. Dekker 84'
K. Taylor 48'
D. Clark 39'
4/28/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 11Home of the Matildas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Melbourne Victory II32%
×Draw22%
Dandenong Thunder46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Victory II
1.57
Dandenong Thunder
1.91

Dandenong Thunder creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

creates per match

Melbourne Victory II
1.31
Dandenong Thunder
1.44

allows per match

Melbourne Victory II
2.38
Dandenong Thunder
1.83

finishing

Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par
Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory II ↓

Dandenong Thunder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory II or draw
54%
Melbourne Victory II or Dandenong Thunder
78%
Draw or Dandenong Thunder
68%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
15%
Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
79%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
46%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
21%
Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals
85%
Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals
57%
Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
41%
Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Dandenong Thunder away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.83 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory II attack 1.31 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.44 + Melbourne Victory II defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Melbourne Victory II scores more
32%
level
22%
Dandenong Thunder scores more
46%

Dandenong Thunder at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dandenong Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
L. Kolic
37'
P. Wall
39'
D. Clark
48'
K. Taylor
71'
D. Lazarevski
84'
W. Dekker
88'
Y. Uchida

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Melbourne Victory II 3–4 Dandenong Thunder

Dandenong Thunder beat Melbourne Victory II 4-3 in Victoria NPL on April 28, 2025.

Goals: L. Kolic (35'), P. Wall (37'), D. Clark (39'), K. Taylor (48'), D. Lazarevski (71'), W. Dekker (84'), Y. Uchida (88').

The match was played at Home of the Matildas in Bundoora.