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Dandenong Thunder vs Melbourne Victory II — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
K. Taylor 80'
W. Dekker 78'
H. Jalloh 60'
Y. Uchida 14'
J. Kellis 83'
8/2/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 24George Andrews Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dandenong Thunder47%
×Draw22%
Melbourne Victory II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong Thunder
2.00
Melbourne Victory II
1.60

Dandenong Thunder creates 25% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dandenong Thunder
1.76
Melbourne Victory II
1.46

allows per match

Dandenong Thunder
1.74
Melbourne Victory II
2.23

finishing

Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong Thunder ↓

Melbourne Victory II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Dandenong Thunder or draw
69%
Dandenong Thunder or Melbourne Victory II
78%
Draw or Melbourne Victory II
53%

Winning margin

Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+
27%
Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals
86%
Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals
59%
Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals
32%
Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
80%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
47%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)
60%
Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong Thunder at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.74 · 88 matches

Melbourne Victory II away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.76 + Melbourne Victory II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.00

Melbourne Victory II attack 1.46 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dandenong Thunder scores more
47%
level
22%
Melbourne Victory II scores more
31%

Dandenong Thunder at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dandenong Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Y. Uchida
60'
H. Jalloh
78'
W. Dekker
80'
K. Taylor
83'
J. Kellis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dandenong Thunder 4 – 1 Melbourne Victory II

Dandenong Thunder beat Melbourne Victory II 4-1 in Victoria NPL on August 2, 2025.

Goals: Y. Uchida (14'), H. Jalloh (60'), W. Dekker (78'), K. Taylor (80'), J. Kellis (83').

The match was played at George Andrews Reserve in Melbourne.