Melbourne Victory II 2–3 Avondale: Result & Stats

Melbourne Victory II

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Avondale

D. Bozinovski 90+3', 72'

Y. Ahmed 90+5'

M. Aguek 61'

S. Zinni 19'

6/9/2025

Victoria NPL · Round 17Home of the Matildas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Melbourne Victory II20%

×Draw20%

Avondale61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne Victory IIExpected goals in this matchAvondale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

2.30

Melbourne Victory II

1.24

Avondale

2.30

Avondale creates 85% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

1.31

creates per match

2.22

2.38

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Melbourne Victory II

1.31

Avondale

2.22

allows per match

Melbourne Victory II

2.38

Avondale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par

Avondale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory II ↓

Avondale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory II or draw

39%

Melbourne Victory II or Avondale

80%

Draw or Avondale

80%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+

8%

Avondale wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals

71%

Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals

35%

Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals

13%

Avondale 1+ goals

90%

Avondale 2+ goals

67%

Avondale 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)

24%

Avondale (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Avondale away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory II attack 1.31 + Avondale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Avondale attack 2.22 + Melbourne Victory II defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Melbourne Victory II scores more

20%

level

20%

Avondale scores more

61%

Avondale at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

S. Zinni

61'

M. Aguek

72'

D. Bozinovski

90+3'

D. Bozinovski

90+5'

Y. Ahmed

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff