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Avondale vs Melbourne Victory II — Victoria NPL 2026

Avondale
Avondale
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
M. Aguek 84'
K. Kur 71'
K. Trajceski 27'
G. Ott 19'
J. Machar Reec 10'
3/1/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 4Avenger Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Avondale64%
×Draw18%
Melbourne Victory II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avondale
2.47
Melbourne Victory II
1.24

Avondale creates 99% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 13 away

creates per match

Avondale
2.71
Melbourne Victory II
1.46

allows per match

Avondale
1.02
Melbourne Victory II
2.23

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Melbourne Victory II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Avondale or draw
82%
Avondale or Melbourne Victory II
82%
Draw or Melbourne Victory II
36%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+
42%
Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals
91%
Avondale 2+ goals
70%
Avondale 3+ goals
44%
Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
71%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
35%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)
78%
Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Melbourne Victory II away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 2.71 + Melbourne Victory II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.47

Melbourne Victory II attack 1.46 + Avondale defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Avondale scores more
64%
level
18%
Melbourne Victory II scores more
18%

Avondale at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
P. Williams
10'
J. Machar Reec
19'
G. Ott
27'
K. Trajceski
71'
K. Kur
84'
M. Aguek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Avondale 4 – 1 Melbourne Victory II

Avondale beat Melbourne Victory II 4-1 in Victoria NPL on March 1, 2025.

Goals: J. Machar Reec (10'), G. Ott (19'), K. Trajceski (27'), K. Kur (71'), M. Aguek (84').

The match was played at Avenger Park in Melbourne.