Melbourne Srbija 3–2 Kingston City: Result & Stats

Melbourne Srbija

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kingston City

5/17/2025

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 14Kevin Bartlett Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Melbourne Srbija48%

×Draw22%

Kingston City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne SrbijaExpected goals in this matchKingston City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.50

Melbourne Srbija

1.95

Kingston City

1.50

Melbourne Srbija creates 30% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 57 away

1.74

creates per match

1.74

1.26

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Melbourne Srbija

1.74

Kingston City

1.74

allows per match

Melbourne Srbija

1.26

Kingston City

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne Srbija+0.00on par

Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Srbija ↓

Kingston City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Melbourne Srbija or draw

70%

Melbourne Srbija or Kingston City

78%

Draw or Kingston City

52%

Winning margin

Melbourne Srbija wins by 2+

27%

Kingston City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Melbourne Srbija 1+ goals

86%

Melbourne Srbija 2+ goals

58%

Melbourne Srbija 3+ goals

31%

Kingston City 1+ goals

78%

Kingston City 2+ goals

44%

Kingston City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Srbija (draw refunded)

62%

Kingston City (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Srbija at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Srbija attack 1.74 + Kingston City defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.95

Kingston City attack 1.74 + Melbourne Srbija defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Melbourne Srbija scores more

48%

level

22%

Kingston City scores more

30%

Melbourne Srbija at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Melbourne Srbija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff