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Kingston City vs Melbourne Srbija — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Melbourne Srbija
Melbourne Srbija
2/10/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 1The Grange Reserve [Clayton South]

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Kingston City35%
×Draw23%
Melbourne Srbija42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.56
Melbourne Srbija
1.74

Melbourne Srbija creates 12% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.61
Melbourne Srbija
1.39

allows per match

Kingston City
2.09
Melbourne Srbija
1.52

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Melbourne Srbija+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Melbourne Srbija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
58%
Kingston City or Melbourne Srbija
77%
Draw or Melbourne Srbija
65%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
17%
Melbourne Srbija wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
79%
Kingston City 2+ goals
46%
Kingston City 3+ goals
21%
Melbourne Srbija 1+ goals
82%
Melbourne Srbija 2+ goals
52%
Melbourne Srbija 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
45%
Melbourne Srbija (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Melbourne Srbija away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Melbourne Srbija defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Melbourne Srbija attack 1.39 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kingston City scores more
35%
level
23%
Melbourne Srbija scores more
42%

Melbourne Srbija at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Melbourne Srbija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Kingston City 3–2 Melbourne Srbija

Kingston City beat Melbourne Srbija 3-2 in Victoria NPL 2 on February 10, 2025.

The match was played at The Grange Reserve [Clayton South] in Melbourne.