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Melbourne City II vs Langwarrin — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
FT
1 – 5
Langwarrin
Langwarrin
7/29/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 24Parade College Soccer Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Melbourne City II50%
×Draw21%
Langwarrin29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City II
2.13
Langwarrin
1.59

Melbourne City II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 67 away

creates per match

Melbourne City II
2.42
Langwarrin
1.42

allows per match

Melbourne City II
1.77
Langwarrin
1.84

finishing

Melbourne City II+0.00on par
Langwarrin+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City II ↓

Langwarrin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Melbourne City II or draw
71%
Melbourne City II or Langwarrin
79%
Draw or Langwarrin
50%

Winning margin

Melbourne City II wins by 2+
29%
Langwarrin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Melbourne City II 1+ goals
88%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
63%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
35%
Langwarrin 1+ goals
80%
Langwarrin 2+ goals
47%
Langwarrin 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
63%
Langwarrin (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

Langwarrin away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City II attack 2.42 + Langwarrin defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.13

Langwarrin attack 1.42 + Melbourne City II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Melbourne City II scores more
50%
level
21%
Langwarrin scores more
29%

Melbourne City II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Melbourne City II 1–5 Langwarrin

Langwarrin beat Melbourne City II 5-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Parade College Soccer Pitch in Melbourne.