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Langwarrin vs Melbourne City II — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Langwarrin
Langwarrin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
6/15/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 18Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Langwarrin32%
×Draw22%
Melbourne City II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langwarrin
1.64
Melbourne City II
2.02

Melbourne City II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 39 away

creates per match

Langwarrin
1.82
Melbourne City II
2.03

allows per match

Langwarrin
2.01
Melbourne City II
1.46

finishing

Langwarrin+0.00on par
Melbourne City II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langwarrin ↓

Melbourne City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Langwarrin or draw
53%
Langwarrin or Melbourne City II
78%
Draw or Melbourne City II
68%

Winning margin

Langwarrin wins by 2+
15%
Melbourne City II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Langwarrin 1+ goals
81%
Langwarrin 2+ goals
49%
Langwarrin 3+ goals
23%
Melbourne City II 1+ goals
87%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
60%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Langwarrin (draw refunded)
40%
Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langwarrin at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.01 · 68 matches

Melbourne City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langwarrin attack 1.82 + Melbourne City II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.64

Melbourne City II attack 2.03 + Langwarrin defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Langwarrin scores more
32%
level
22%
Melbourne City II scores more
47%

Melbourne City II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Langwarrin 2–2 Melbourne City II

Langwarrin and Melbourne City II drew 2-2 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1 in Langwarrin South.