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Melbourne City II vs Bulleen Lions — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
FT
2 – 2
Bulleen Lions
Bulleen Lions
3/17/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 6Casey Fields - Pitch 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Melbourne City II50%
×Draw21%
Bulleen Lions28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City II
2.06
Bulleen Lions
1.50

Melbourne City II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 66 away

creates per match

Melbourne City II
2.42
Bulleen Lions
1.24

allows per match

Melbourne City II
1.77
Bulleen Lions
1.70

finishing

Melbourne City II+0.00on par
Bulleen Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City II ↓

Bulleen Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Melbourne City II or draw
72%
Melbourne City II or Bulleen Lions
79%
Draw or Bulleen Lions
50%

Winning margin

Melbourne City II wins by 2+
29%
Bulleen Lions wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Melbourne City II 1+ goals
87%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
61%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
34%
Bulleen Lions 1+ goals
78%
Bulleen Lions 2+ goals
44%
Bulleen Lions 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
64%
Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

Bulleen Lions away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City II attack 2.42 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.06

Bulleen Lions attack 1.24 + Melbourne City II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Melbourne City II scores more
50%
level
21%
Bulleen Lions scores more
28%

Melbourne City II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne City II vs Bulleen Lions

Melbourne City II and Bulleen Lions drew 2-2 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Casey Fields - Pitch 4 in Melbourne.