Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bulleen Lions vs Melbourne City II — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Bulleen Lions
Bulleen Lions
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
6/24/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 19David Barro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Bulleen Lions39%
×Draw23%
Melbourne City II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulleen Lions
1.71
Melbourne City II
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 39 away

creates per match

Bulleen Lions
1.97
Melbourne City II
2.03

allows per match

Bulleen Lions
1.37
Melbourne City II
1.46

finishing

Bulleen Lions+0.00on par
Melbourne City II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulleen Lions ↓

Melbourne City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bulleen Lions or draw
62%
Bulleen Lions or Melbourne City II
77%
Draw or Melbourne City II
61%

Winning margin

Bulleen Lions wins by 2+
20%
Melbourne City II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bulleen Lions 1+ goals
82%
Bulleen Lions 2+ goals
51%
Bulleen Lions 3+ goals
24%
Melbourne City II 1+ goals
82%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
51%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)
50%
Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulleen Lions at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Melbourne City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulleen Lions attack 1.97 + Melbourne City II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.71

Melbourne City II attack 2.03 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bulleen Lions scores more
39%
level
23%
Melbourne City II scores more
38%

Bulleen Lions at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bulleen Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Bulleen Lions 2–1 Melbourne City II

Bulleen Lions beat Melbourne City II 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 24, 2024.

The match was played at David Barro Stadium in Melbourne.