Melbourne City II 2–1 Brunswick City

Melbourne City II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Brunswick City

6/8/2024

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 17Casey Fields - Pitch 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Melbourne City II50%

×Draw21%

Brunswick City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne City IIExpected goals in this matchBrunswick City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.61

Melbourne City II

2.13

Brunswick City

1.61

Melbourne City II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 68 away

2.42

creates per match

1.46

1.77

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Melbourne City II

2.42

Brunswick City

1.46

allows per match

Melbourne City II

1.77

Brunswick City

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne City II+0.00on par

Brunswick City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City II ↓

Brunswick City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Melbourne City II or draw

71%

Melbourne City II or Brunswick City

79%

Draw or Brunswick City

50%

Winning margin

Melbourne City II wins by 2+

29%

Brunswick City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Melbourne City II 1+ goals

88%

Melbourne City II 2+ goals

63%

Melbourne City II 3+ goals

35%

Brunswick City 1+ goals

80%

Brunswick City 2+ goals

48%

Brunswick City 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City II (draw refunded)

63%

Brunswick City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

Brunswick City away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City II attack 2.42 + Brunswick City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.13

Brunswick City attack 1.46 + Melbourne City II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Melbourne City II scores more

50%

level

21%

Brunswick City scores more

29%

Melbourne City II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff