Brunswick City 2–0 Melbourne City II

Brunswick City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Melbourne City II

8/24/2025

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 26Dunstan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Brunswick City34%

×Draw22%

Melbourne City II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brunswick CityExpected goals in this matchMelbourne City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.83

Brunswick City

1.60

Melbourne City II

1.83

Melbourne City II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 39 away

1.74

creates per match

2.03

1.64

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Brunswick City

1.74

Melbourne City II

2.03

allows per match

Brunswick City

1.64

Melbourne City II

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brunswick City+0.00on par

Melbourne City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brunswick City ↓

Melbourne City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Brunswick City or draw

57%

Brunswick City or Melbourne City II

78%

Draw or Melbourne City II

66%

Winning margin

Brunswick City wins by 2+

16%

Melbourne City II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Brunswick City 1+ goals

80%

Brunswick City 2+ goals

47%

Brunswick City 3+ goals

22%

Melbourne City II 1+ goals

84%

Melbourne City II 2+ goals

54%

Melbourne City II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Brunswick City (draw refunded)

44%

Melbourne City II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brunswick City at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

Melbourne City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brunswick City attack 1.74 + Melbourne City II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.60

Melbourne City II attack 2.03 + Brunswick City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brunswick City scores more

34%

level

22%

Melbourne City II scores more

43%

Melbourne City II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff