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Mekelakeya vs Hambericho Durame — Premier League 2019

Mekelakeya
Mekelakeya
FT
1 – 0
Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
11/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mekelakeya54%
×Draw26%
Hambericho Durame20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mekelakeya
1.55
Hambericho Durame
0.83

Mekelakeya creates 87% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mekelakeya
1.04
Hambericho Durame
0.67

allows per match

Mekelakeya
1.00
Hambericho Durame
2.07

finishing

Mekelakeya+0.00on par
Hambericho Durame+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mekelakeya ↓

Hambericho Durame →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mekelakeya or draw
80%
Mekelakeya or Hambericho Durame
74%
Draw or Hambericho Durame
46%

Winning margin

Mekelakeya wins by 2+
28%
Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mekelakeya 1+ goals
79%
Mekelakeya 2+ goals
46%
Mekelakeya 3+ goals
20%
Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
56%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
20%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)
73%
Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mekelakeya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Hambericho Durame away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mekelakeya attack 1.04 + Hambericho Durame defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.55

Hambericho Durame attack 0.67 + Mekelakeya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mekelakeya scores more
54%
level
26%
Hambericho Durame scores more
20%

Mekelakeya at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mekelakeya 1–0 Hambericho Durame

Mekelakeya beat Hambericho Durame 1-0 in Premier League on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.