Hambericho Durame 0–2 Mekelakeya: Result & Stats

Hambericho Durame

FT

0 – 2

Mekelakeya

5/12/2024

Premier League · Round 24Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hambericho Durame12%

×Draw25%

Mekelakeya63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hambericho DurameExpected goals in this matchMekelakeya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.49

1.54

Hambericho Durame

0.49

Mekelakeya

1.54

Mekelakeya creates 214% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

0.13

creates per match

1.35

1.73

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Hambericho Durame

0.13

Mekelakeya

1.35

allows per match

Hambericho Durame

1.73

Mekelakeya

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hambericho Durame+0.00on par

Mekelakeya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hambericho Durame ↓

Mekelakeya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–120%

0–216%

0–38%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Hambericho Durame or draw

37%

Hambericho Durame or Mekelakeya

75%

Draw or Mekelakeya

88%

Winning margin

Hambericho Durame wins by 2+

2%

Mekelakeya wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Hambericho Durame 1+ goals

39%

Hambericho Durame 2+ goals

9%

Hambericho Durame 3+ goals

1%

Mekelakeya 1+ goals

79%

Mekelakeya 2+ goals

45%

Mekelakeya 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)

15%

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hambericho Durame at home — creates 0.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Mekelakeya away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hambericho Durame attack 0.13 + Mekelakeya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.49

Mekelakeya attack 1.35 + Hambericho Durame defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hambericho Durame scores more

12%

level

25%

Mekelakeya scores more

63%

Mekelakeya at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff