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Mekelakeya vs Dire Dawa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Mekelakeya
Mekelakeya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
1/14/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mekelakeya39%
×Draw30%
Dire Dawa Kenema31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mekelakeya
1.14
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.99

Mekelakeya creates 15% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 100 away

creates per match

Mekelakeya
1.04
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.99

allows per match

Mekelakeya
1.00
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.24

finishing

Mekelakeya+0.00on par
Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mekelakeya ↓

Dire Dawa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mekelakeya or draw
69%
Mekelakeya or Dire Dawa Kenema
70%
Draw or Dire Dawa Kenema
61%

Winning margin

Mekelakeya wins by 2+
16%
Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mekelakeya 1+ goals
68%
Mekelakeya 2+ goals
32%
Mekelakeya 3+ goals
11%
Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
63%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
26%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)
55%
Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mekelakeya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Dire Dawa Kenema away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mekelakeya attack 1.04 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.99 + Mekelakeya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mekelakeya scores more
39%
level
30%
Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
31%

Mekelakeya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mekelakeya 0 – 0 Dire Dawa Kenema

Mekelakeya and Dire Dawa Kenema drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 14, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.