Dire Dawa Kenema vs Mekelakeya — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 81+ matches
Dire Dawa Kenema26%
Mekelakeya47%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mekelakeya creates 47% more chances
Season form · 102 home / 81 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dire Dawa Kenema ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dire Dawa Kenema at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches
Mekelakeya away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.86 · 81 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.97 + Mekelakeya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92
Mekelakeya attack 1.35 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Mekelakeya at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Fasil Ketema
Mekelle Kenema
Kedus Giorgis
Sidama Bunna
Bahardar
Shire Endaselassie
Awassa Kenema
Ethiopia Bunna
Adama Kenema
Welayta Dicha
Sebeta Kenema
Wolkite KetemaDire Dawa Kenema
Jimma Aba Jifar
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Hadiya HosaenaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Dire Dawa Kenema host Mekelakeya on Sunday, 2 March 2025 at 12:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Premier League: Dire Dawa Kenema 0–0 Mekelakeya
Dire Dawa Kenema and Mekelakeya drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 2, 2025.
The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.