Meizhou Meixian Techand 2–3 Meizhou Kejia

Meizhou Meixian Techand

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Meizhou Kejia

8/24/2019

League One · Round 23Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand37%

×Draw25%

Meizhou Kejia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meizhou Meixian TechandExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.38

Meizhou Meixian Techand

1.39

Meizhou Kejia

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 63 away

1.40

creates per match

1.49

1.27

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Meizhou Meixian Techand

1.40

Meizhou Kejia

1.49

allows per match

Meizhou Meixian Techand

1.27

Meizhou Kejia

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Meixian Techand ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Meizhou Meixian Techand or draw

63%

Meizhou Meixian Techand or Meizhou Kejia

75%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

63%

Winning margin

Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+

17%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals

75%

Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals

40%

Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals

16%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

75%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

40%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)

50%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Meixian Techand at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.38 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.40 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.49 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more

37%

level

25%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

37%

Meizhou Meixian Techand at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Meizhou Meixian Techand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff