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Meizhou Kejia vs Meizhou Meixian Techand — League One 2018

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Meizhou Meixian Techand
Meizhou Meixian Techand
5/4/2019League OneLeague One · Round 8Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Meizhou Kejia50%
×Draw23%
Meizhou Meixian Techand27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
1.83
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.29

Meizhou Kejia creates 42% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.80
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.33

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.25
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.87

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Meizhou Meixian Techand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
73%
Meizhou Kejia or Meizhou Meixian Techand
77%
Draw or Meizhou Meixian Techand
50%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
28%
Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
84%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
54%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
28%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals
72%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals
37%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
65%
Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.80 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.83

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.33 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
50%
level
23%
Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more
27%

Meizhou Kejia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Meizhou Kejia 0–1 Meizhou Meixian Techand

Meizhou Meixian Techand beat Meizhou Kejia 1-0 in League One on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Huitang Stadium in Wuhua.