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Meizhou Meixian Techand vs Hangzhou Greentown — League One 2018

Meizhou Meixian Techand
Meizhou Meixian Techand
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
6/30/2019League OneLeague One · Round 15Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand32%
×Draw25%
Hangzhou Greentown43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.26
Hangzhou Greentown
1.49

Hangzhou Greentown creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 56 away

creates per match

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.40
Hangzhou Greentown
1.71

allows per match

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.27
Hangzhou Greentown
1.13

finishing

Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par
Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Meixian Techand ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Meizhou Meixian Techand or draw
57%
Meizhou Meixian Techand or Hangzhou Greentown
75%
Draw or Hangzhou Greentown
68%

Winning margin

Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+
14%
Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals
72%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals
36%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals
13%
Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
77%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
44%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)
43%
Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Meixian Techand at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.40 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.71 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more
32%
level
25%
Hangzhou Greentown scores more
43%

Hangzhou Greentown at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meizhou Meixian Techand vs Hangzhou Greentown

Meizhou Meixian Techand and Hangzhou Greentown drew 2-2 in League One on June 30, 2019.

The match was played at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium in Meixian.