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Hangzhou Greentown vs Meizhou Meixian Techand — League One 2018

Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Meizhou Meixian Techand
Meizhou Meixian Techand
10/28/2018League OneLeague One · Round 29Yellow Dragon Sports Center (Hangzhou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown53%
×Draw23%
Meizhou Meixian Techand24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hangzhou Greentown
1.88
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.19

Hangzhou Greentown creates 58% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 30 away

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.89
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.33

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.04
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.87

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par
Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Meizhou Meixian Techand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw
76%
Hangzhou Greentown or Meizhou Meixian Techand
77%
Draw or Meizhou Meixian Techand
47%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
30%
Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
85%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
56%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
29%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals
70%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals
33%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
69%
Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.04 · 54 matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.89 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.88

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.33 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more
53%
level
23%
Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more
24%

Hangzhou Greentown at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Hangzhou Greentown 1–0 Meizhou Meixian Techand

Hangzhou Greentown beat Meizhou Meixian Techand 1-0 in League One on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Yellow Dragon Sports Center (Hangzhou).